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Wall Street is the worst year-end foreign exchange department this year

HomeWall Street is the worst year-end foreign exchange department this year

Wall Street is the worst year-end foreign exchange Brisbane department this year

Despite the record highs in the stock market, 2017 is not a good year for the foreign exchange market. Foreign exchange brisbane.

“Bloomberg” reported that both the French and German general elections did not stimulate the foreign exchange market. Meanwhile, interest rate hikes in the central bank also failed to make any major moves in the foreign exchange market. Therefore, under the relatively small overall foreign exchange rate volatility. Wall Street investment banks Their foreign exchange transactions, but also more miserable. Foreign exchange brisbane.

According to statistics. The Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BAC-US) foreign exchange traders estimated a 10% decline this year. While the foreign exchange department of the other JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM-US) on Wall Street was also estimated to have dropped 5% at the end of the year.

Marianne Lake, Chief Financial Officer at Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Said: “The overall volatility in foreign exchange this year is not big enough.”

At this stage is also the Wall Street personnel department began counting the end of the year. In a separate survey, it is estimated that. In addition to electronic transactions. All trading departments will have a downward trend at the end of 2017. Foreign exchange Brisbane.

Year-end decline : Foreign Exchange Brisbane

According to data released by consulting firm Johnson Associates. Wall Street staff estimates for 2017 are expected to decline. With the stock trading sector falling 5% year-over-year in 2016 while the year-end estimates for bonds and fixed-income (FICC) sectors will decline More. But the worst is the foreign exchange business group.

JP Morgan Chase 2016 foreign exchange bonuses increased by 20%, due to Trump’s election and the market for the expected rate hike is quite large.

On the trading volume, the volume of bond trading by major Wall Street securities firms dropped an average of 7% (January-September 2017). Goldman Sachs (GS-US) fell even more by 23% and JP Morgan’s trading volume also dropped 11%.

In stock trading, only Citigroup (C-US) and Bank of America Merrill Lynch have a slight growth. Most of the managers think that the transaction volume in December this year will even drop by 15%. Making the year-end saving plan even more troublesome.

However, U.S. securities firms are still year-end better than Europe. With European securities dealers setting a record low for the year-end. Barclays Barclays (BCS-US), Deutsche Bank (DB-US), Credit Suisse (CS-US). The fixed-income division of Credit Suisse (CS-US), have seen a 10% or 10% decline this year. Foreign exchange brisbane

Australian dollar is up or down How do hedge funds?

Australian dollar 2018 will not fall below 70 cents? The two biggest asset managers in Australia are very different.

QIC Ltd, which manages US $ 63 billion in overseas funds, believes the Australian dollar will fall below 70 cents by mid-2018 as interest rates on the Australian government are lower than those on the United States.

AMP Capital Investors Ltd, which manages $ 137bn, does not agree, but they predict that the Australian dollar will be supported above 70 cents in light of China’s strong economy and rising commodity prices.

Bearish opinion : Foreign Exchange Brisbane

The Aussie has depreciated about 6% from its high this year (September) and its two-year public bond premium has disappeared last month, the first time in 2000. Long and short economic data means that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) may not hurry to raise interest rates, and interest rates are still at a record low of 1.5%. Compared to the U.S. Fed, the benchmark interest rate has been raised five times since December 2015 to a similar level. Foreign exchange brisbane.

Susan Buckley, general manager of global gold market strategy at QIC, said: “The (AUD) yield curve over the 10-year period is far weaker than that of the United States and we may be heading towards a time when the spread will be more stressful than other factors.”

The two-year Australian premium is currently five basis points, a drop from the 510 basis points in February 2008. Yields on 10-year Treasury also shrank to 17 basis points from its 2008 high of 277 basis points.

Buckley at QIC believes RBA will not be tightening until the second half of next year. But the Fed is likely to raise interest rates three times next year.

Bullish argument

Nader Naeimi, head of dynamic investment funds for security capital investments. Believes that the steady growth in China. Australia’s largest trading partner, may help curb the further decline of the Australian dollar. Foreign exchange brisbane

Iron ore shipped to Qingdao has increased by more than 20% since Oct. 31; strong factory output and consumer spending have allowed China’s economy to grow by 6.8% in the third quarter.

Naeimi said that “the supportive power of China and commodities. But also suffered local resistance. Which is why I think the Australian dollar is unlikely to see a clear trend in the short term. I still think that to buy the Australian dollar. Bought at 70-73 US dollars, and then Sell in the 82-85 dollar range. ”

Gareth Berry, foreign exchange rate analyst at Macquarie Bank in Singapore. Believes that the Australian dollar spread is not a “foreign exchange disaster” and the rate of return is not the sole consideration of the central bank and other investors in seeking diversified ownership. Australian bonds still have excellent dividend yields. There are also support for the Australian dollar. Foreign exchange brisbane

RBA Australian dollar rise will rise

The value of the Australian dollar at the end of 2018 ranged from 67 cents to 86 cents. Underscoring the divergence in opinion among analysts. Sydney on Monday trading, the Australian dollar was 76.60 cents. The previous fall below 70 cents is a matter of February 2016.

Market positioning became less bullish as hedge funds and other large speculators cut their long positions. Falling to 44,409 on 12 December according to the CFTC, dropping sharply from a 4-year high of 86,204 reached at the end of August.

Mansoor Mohi-uddin, director of currency strategy at NatWest Markets, a unit of Royal Bank of Scotland, believes that the Aussie will continue to get weaker unless trigger points are found.

“The Australian dollar is still bearish in coming months. Unless RBA becomes strong next year and starts to show a rate hike, will it be possible to change that trend.”

HSBC expects the RBA will have to raise interest rates next year, will also lead the Australian dollar jumped 10%.

 

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